NFL Futures: Markets to Watch

An Early Look At NFL Futures

June and July are the quietest months on the football calendar, but they’re loud for bettors willing to sift through soft numbers before preseason headlines harden the odds. The four markets below still grade out as bettable at current prices, each backed by trend data, roster context, and schedule analysis.

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1. Cam Ward (+275) — Offensive Rookie of the Year

The voter lean toward quarterbacks The AP has handed its O-ROY trophy to a QB in four of the past six seasons. Jayden Daniels (2024), C.J. Stroud (2023), Justin Herbert (2020), and Kyler Murray (2019). See the full list on Pro-Football-Reference. There's a heavy media bias towards the position, and Ward's talent has him far ahead of all the other QBs in the draft.

Why Ward?

• No. 1 overall pick: His talent speaks for itself, and he's a cut above every other QB selected. This isn't like in prior draft years where the 2nd best QB taken (Daniels, Stroud) also have big upside. Last year Caleb Williams was a +160 favorite to win, which was a steep number given how many skill position players went off the board early. This year, it's a 3-horse race between Ward, Jeanty and Travis Hunter... and taking the QB at +300 odds will be plus-EV once odds start tightening up.
• Scheme fit: New OC Joe Brady’s RPO-heavy, quick-game attack mirrors Ward’s Washington State tape. And while not the sexiest group on paper, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears in the backfield, coupled with the 1-2 punch of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett out wide gives Ward plenty of options. Veteran players make rookies' lives much easier, and Ward is in a position where he can let his talent shine.
• Consensus price: Ward sits between +275 and +330 at major books, around the same as RB Ashton Jeanty. Those are great odds to get the best QB in the draft.

Supporting cast & schedule Tennessee’s slate features only six defenses that finished top-10 in EPA/play last year. Playing in a weak division and having a favorable schedule should make OROY Ward's to lose.

Verdict: Anything longer than +300 is a buy.

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2. Carolina Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-140)

Second-half form carries over After a 1-7 start, Bryce Young’s Panthers closed 4-5 in 2024. Three of those losses were one-possession heartbreakers. 30-27 loss vs Kansas City, a 26-23 (OT) shortcoming vs Tampa Bay, and a 22-16 loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champs Philadelphia. Young averaged 251 passing yards in that stretch, and showed glimpses of the #1 pick ability he was touted for.

The easiest path in the NFC Sharp Football Analysis ranks Carolina with the 7th-easiest 2025 slate (SOS table). Only five games come against 2024 playoff teams.

Roster upgrades

• Elite rookie WR: No. 8 pick Tetairoa McMillan steps in at X receiver, and should be an instant difference maker (NFL.com write-up).
• Defense reload: DT Tershawn Wharton, S Tre’von Moehrig and LB additions repair a run D that ranked 32nd in 2024 DVOA.
• Ground-game momentum: Hubbard averaged 76.6 rushing YPG over his final 12 contests.

Verdict: After finishing 5-12, projecting the Panthers to win 2 more games with their upgraded roster is great value. Especially with their strength of schedule, and playing in a weak division.

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3. DeVonta Smith Over 850.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Track record of production

Stats via Pro-Football-Reference.

Smith has surpassed 850 yards in three of four seasons, falling short by just 18 yards in 2024 despite missing 3 games throughout the season due to a concussion and a minor hamstring strain. He also sat in Week 18 after the Eagles had tied up their playoff position, missing a total of 4 games. The line being set this low is a bargain.

Smith averaged 9.4 yards per target last year, and 9.5 the year prior. Assuming a similar pace, he needs a total of 90.4 targets to cross the 850 threshold next season, which he projects to reach in 14 games. Given his history of durability and pedigree as a 1,000 yard receiver, getting him at an 850 total is a great line.

Additional notes for 2025

• Stable scheme: OC Brian Johnson returns, preserving Smith’s dig/over route tree.
• Prime window: Age-27 is historically peak WR territory.

Smith is just entering his prime, this could be a monster season for him.

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4. Breece Hall Under 5.5 Rushing TDs (-105)

Recent rushing production

Advanced data from Pro-Football-Reference and TruMedia.

Committee warning from the new staff Head coach Aaron Glenn has telegraphed a three-back rotation featuring Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. See Rich Cimini’s note on ESPN and coverage at Bleacher Report.

Historical production vs expected role Hall has logged exactly five rushing TDs in back-to-back 200-carry seasons. A workload cutback, or TD vulturing by from other backs makes 6 rush TDs a tall order.

Scheme & quarterback factors

• Rushing-QB vultures: The Jets signed Justin Fields to a two-year deal (NFL.com), and his scrambling siphons red-zone carries. Running backs have never racked up a ton of counting stats when Justin Fields is starting.
• Between-the-tackles struggles: Hall’s 40% success rate inside is bottom-third among lead backs, reinforcing Glenn’s power-back committee. It's not looking like Hall will be getting goal-line rushes.

Expectation: Hall likely lands in the 3–5 TD range; grab the under before books drop to 4.5.

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Bankroll Allocation

*Unit = 1 % of bankroll—adjust to personal risk tolerance.

If you're looking to lock in some early futures bets, these markets look like great value. Be ready to hedge or middle if the market hands you plus-EV exit points as training camps getting underway next month.